Every tournament hands you one group where the two qualifiers genuinely aren't obvious – three sides who could all top it and a fourth good enough to mug any of them on a bad night. It's the spot most players overthink, and the spot where a calm plan pays best.
Be deliberate, not certain
The mistake is treating a wide-open group like a coin flip and copying the seeding. Split it into two separate decisions: who qualifies, and in which order. Getting the pair right matters far more than nailing first versus second, so spend your confidence there and treat the exact order as a low-stakes guess.
Pick the two sides with the kindest run-in, accept you'll probably miss the precise order, and you'll already be ahead of the half of your league that copied the rankings straight off the page.